As we continue to work with our clients’ legal counsel across the country, we are finding that the “shelf life” of the Community Needs Assessment has continued to evolve. At this point, our clients are typically re-defining their CMS service area (the hospital Stark service area or "geographic area served by the hospital") and updating the Community Needs Assessment on an annual basis.
It seems reasonable to assume that the utility of the Community Needs Assessment would decrease in direct proportion to the length of time that has passed since its completion. From 3d Health’s perspective, the assessment is as accurate as possible on the day it is issued.
We believe that GMENAC, published surveys and publicly available ratios are both aged and no longer accurate. This is why we have built our proprietary Physician Demand Model.
3d Health projects demand for physician services using our proprietary Physician Demand Model. The model was developed with utilization data purchased from the leading actuarial firm Milliman. The commercial physician encounter rates are based on Milliman’s proprietary database from nationwide commercial group data representing encounters from over 550 million-member-months. Medicare encounter rates are based on the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ 5% sample data file, which is comprised of data representing encounters from over 13.8 million-member-months.
3d Health’s baseline Physician Demand Model projects demand for both physician and non-physician provider services for a traditionally managed patient population. The utilization data is age and gender specific across 47 provider specialties, 2 genders and 6 age cohorts – resulting in 564 actuarial rates vs. single use rates. The model is also capable of adjusting the projected demand for physician services across the continuum from loosely to well-managed care, allowing you to better plan for population health management and the expected impact on demand for physician services.